Sea levels to get higher, faster

In March 2007, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change decided that continuing climate change could mean severe weather patterns by the end of the 21st century.

The panel’s forecast is the basis of current policy making.

It predicted that oceans would be higher by 18cm to 59cm, eliminating some island countries and causing chaos for the populations of low level deltas in east Asia, Africa and the Indian subcontinent.

Scientists have now warned that the effect of global warming is overtaking that forecast and sea levels may be several times higher than expected in 2007.

In 2007, the IPCC scientists did not know the latest data on melting ice caps and its effect on sea levels.

It is now evident that melting ice in Greenland and Antarctica will have a greater impact than the expansion of the oceans from warmer seas and melting glaciers, both caused by higher temperatures.

A new report, revealed yesterday at the UN Panel’s meeting in Copenhagen, took into account the probable breaking up of glaciers in Antarctica. and Greenland.

Over 2000 researchers from 80 countries presented their research for the meeting.

They were then scrutinised by a team of experts.

Team leader Rajendra Pachauri told the meeting afterwards that the planet does not have much time.

Delegates also expressed concerns that harmful gases, principally emissions from coal, oil and gas could lead to an imbalance that would be virtually impracticable to turn around.

Stefan Rahmstorf from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research said the revised scenario means an increase in sea level from 75cm to 190cm by 2100.

Even if carbon dioxide emissions were suddenly reduced the best calculation is around 1m, he added.

Katherine Richardson, chief of Denmark’s Commission on Climate Change Policy said the 2007 report is important, but it will no longer be valid when delegates meet in December in Copenhagen to negotiate a new world climate treaty.

Scientists understand that even if the emission of CO2 stopped immediately, the earth will carry on warming and sea levels will carry on rising for a long time yet because the world’s climate structure will change only slowly.

However, scientists also understand that the longer CO2 is emitted, the longer it will be before the warming stops and the worse it will be for future generations.

Therefore, the international conference on global warming in Copenhagen must be successful.