Best case climate scenario: 50% chance of survival

Even if the world does its utmost to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, there is only a 50% chance of saving the planet from disaster, the UK Met Office warned yesterday.

This 50% chance will only be possible if the whole world engages in a radical reduction of carbon emissions, the Met Office said.

Researchers at the Met Office Hadley Centre issued the warning as climate scientists meet this week in Copenhagen to prepare for the United Nations climate change summit later this year.

According to the Met Office simulation, the world’s carbon emissions must stop rising by 2015, and must then be cut by 3% per year if the world is to have any chance of survival.

Its calculations are based on a 2 degrees Celsius (C) rise in temperatures being the maximum possible that they earth can sustain without major flooding and an agricultural crisis.

Even if increasing temperatures are held to a 2C maximum, the world will still see an increase in serious droughts and heat waves.

Vicky Pope, head of climate change advice at the Hadley Centre, said: “In order to stabilise at a 2C rise we have to make very drastic cuts.”

“But however drastic the emission cuts are, there is going to be a rise in temperatures.”

“We are pretty much going to head towards 2C whatever we do.”

“There are some impacts that are already happening and we are going to be living in a very different world.”