Will transport costs bring back local shops and new mega-cities?

Living in cities may be the only option for most of the population as costs of transporting goods will move ever upwards making living in ‘the country’ impractical in terms of transport and the cost of purchasing many goods locally.

The well defined trend of people retiring from the crowded, polluted cities into the quiet, peaceful clean air of the rural areas may become a thing of the past and in fact will be reversed, with an 1800’s industrial revolution style, mass-migration into the cities.

The London transport museum and sponsor Orange have set out to ask people where they think our future is heading over the next 50 years, by using a game and dissecting the answers the public provide.

The game is the boldest attempt yet to accurately predict how our attitudes and lifestyle choices today will impact on the world fifty years from now. Since its launch on 16th June, over 2,800 people have interacted with the game, answering a series of questions about their lifestyle choices and attitudes towards mobility and sustainability.

Their answers reveal that by the 2050s:

* The current lifestyle choices of the majority of countryside-dwellers would take society towards a carbon-controlled future, where good intentions are closely monitored and measured without cleaner technology being designed. This is a world where the good intentions of 2008 have amounted to very little.

* The majority of city-dwellers are making very different lifestyle choices, and suggest a future living in simple, urban colonies, relying on local resources. This ‘living local’ scenario is currently the most likely future based on the answers provided to date.

* Only 6% of people’s current lifestyle choices would lead to the collapse of society, global recession and sharp and savage energy shock indicating that we may be becoming more environmentally aware with our lifestyle choices.

The four scenarios predicted by the Future Generator correspond to those outlined in the Report making a graphic link between how we behave today and what life might be like for the next generation.

On 17 June, London Transport Museum brought together some of the UK’s leading commentators and experts on technology, city planning and climate change to debate one of the most pressing issues of our time - Survive or Thrive? Urban Life in the 2050s.

Speaking at the debate, Tony Travers from the London School Economics commented: ‘The problem about people living in the countryside and the cost of fuel means that living in the countryside is not economically sustainable. Every time you hear a debate about carbon credits, remember that it will put the cost of living in rural areas up very significantly, and bring it down in cities.

This scenario would throw up all kinds of new problems such as what would happen to all the deserted rural buildings, will cities become so large that they would become ‘un-liveable, would cities become so large that they would join together in gigantic mega cities combining Liverpool To Manchester and Leeds To Bradford.

If no one will be able to afford to live outside of cities where will farm labourers live, if the new cities will depend on ‘local’ resources, where will these resources be located, on the outskirts of the cities? But if they are would there be enough land to support an ever increasing non-farming population.

Such problems were faced once before in the industrial revolution when millions descended on cities for a better income leaving the fields empty and the first industrialized cities of Manchester and Salford nearly starving.

Andrew Curry, Director of the Henley Centre and co-author of the Foresight Report said: ‘In terms of the rural infrastructure, as it presently exists, where local shops have disappeared due to larger supermarkets, if you start having high fuel costs or high carbon costs, the countryside as it is currently constructed becomes a horrible place to live. You have to make changes in the way lives are structured.’

Graham Fisher, Head of Orange Labs R&D, UK added: ‘It is a sobering thought that the rural ideal to which so many people aspire may no longer be a viable option by the time today’s children reach retirement age.

Few people would imagine that city living could offer a more sustainable alternative simply because of the options that are made available to the people that live in them or that the intelligent way in which infrastructure and technology is used to aid urban living can also have such a dramatic effect on environmental sustainability.’

Other findings from the Future Generator reveal that 45% of people living in the UK would ‘live local’ based on their current lifestyle choices compared to over half (51%) of respondents from outside the UK would live in a ‘carbon controlled’ world while there was no difference between the choices made by over 18s and the older generation.

The Results - The most likely futures based on the choices of different groups of people

The results below are based on choices recorded on the Future Generator since its launch on the 16th June, and the 7 July 2008.

2050s scenarios based on the choices made by everyone playing the game.
Carbon Controlled 23%
Living Local 45%
Energy Shock 5%
Always On 27%

2050s scenario based on the choices made by people living in cities.
Carbon Controlled 24%
Living Local 46%
Energy Shock 2%
Always On 28%

2050s scenario based on the choices made by people living in a rural environment.
Carbon Controlled 40%
Living Local 37%
Energy Shock 2%
Always On 21%

2050s scenario based on the choices made by people living in the UK.
Carbon Controlled 24%
Living Local 46%
Energy Shock 2%
Always On 28%

2050s scenario based on the choices made by people living outside the UK.
Carbon Controlled 44%
Living Local 35%
Energy Shock 2%
Always On 19%

The London 2055 Gallery

The new London Transport Museum interprets transport futures for the first time. This new content has been developed in response to a strong steer given to the Museum by audience research commissioned to inform the new exhibitions.

Current and future transport developments are showcased while visitors are given the opportunity to see what it might be like to live in London in 2055, based on the lifestyle choices we are making today. Visitors to the new Museum will end their visit with an improved understanding of the challenges of congestion, population growth and climate changes and feel empowered to get involved in London’s future.